via Paul Kedrosky, a very interesting graph with some harrowing numbers for housing in San Diego, graph originally on the SDUT:

San Diego news break: San Diego’s seemingly serene coastal communities of La Jolla and Pacific Beach were given a rude wakeup call this week with the Soledad Mountain Road landslide on Wednesday, October 3, 2007 and the following double-dose Pacific Beach water main breaks on Thursday, October 4, 2007. Whether the disastrous episodes are directly related is still uncertain; but what is certain is the La Jolla and Pacific Beach victims have lost all sense of security and trust in the once-idyllic San Diego neighborhood.

Minutes before 9am on the morning of Wednesday, October 3, 2007, the land moved on Soledad Mountain Road in La Jolla, causing 111 homes to evacuate. The street seemed to sink before San Diego’s eyes in this mountain neighborhood that has a history of landslides that dates back to the 1960s. On Tuesday, October 2, 2007, city officials warned four Soledad Mountain homes about the potential land movement; but the realized landslide affects were greater than officials anticipated, leaving a 15 ft. deep ravine that overlooks I-5 from Soledad Mountain Road.

With 9 Soledad homes deemed off-limits for entry and 52 Soledad homes deemed unfit for overnight stay, thankfully the natural disaster left no fatalities. Early Thursday morning, San Diego Major Jerry Sanders declared La Jolla in a State of Emergency and stated the first and primary goal is to focus on the families and residents of the affected area.

South of Mt. Soledad, two water line breaks flooded two major streets in Pacific Beach. The larger pipe rupture occurred around 2pm at Ingraham Street near Sea World’s western entrance, and flooded the area extending to West Mission Bay Drive. Although no homes or residents were injured, I-5 and I-8 freeway access was blocked off for most of the evening. Around 4:30pm the second water line broke on Garnet Avenue near Fanuel Street. Although an irritable traffic build-up, the second pipe rupture was less severe than the earlier break, which is expected to leave Ingraham and West Mission Bay closed for repair for much of Friday, October 5, 2007.

Check your San Diego news stations for traffic updates, the affects on La Jolla real estate, and local victim-outreach resources.

According to Forbes, San Diego is now the most overpriced home market in the county. From America’s most overpriced home markets:

San Diego has plenty of sunshine but little affordable housing. Only 5% of local residents could buy a median-priced home — one reason the city grabbed the dubious honor of ranking No. 1 on this list.

Most people in San Diego agree on two local truths: San Diego is one of the greatest cities to live in the world, and San Diego sky-rocket real estate prices make living in San Diego a difficult privilege to maintain. These two truths intertwine to keep locals ever-searching for more and more money to keep up to date with the rent and mortgage.

But, what if we loyal locals could continue to live in San Diego … but never pay rent or mortgage?

Although not the most glamorous alternative lifestyle—the San Diego RV community has the right idea. If you own an RV, all you must do to live in San Diego is simply seek out a good parking spot and ride out the year, rent free. I don’t know if I could handle the lack of stability a home on wheels assumes, but it is an interesting proposition.

The San Diego RV community isn’t usually the most buzzed-about community in San Diego, but RV owners did make a scene this week in San Diego news and media. Many residents and businesses in the Shelter Island area voiced complaints of RVs continually hogging Shelter Island parking, leaving no spaces for locals and tourists to visit the area.

Specific problems arose in the Shelter Island Shoreline Park. Rumors float past parking violation tickets and new parking signs that forbid over-night parking in the newly expanded designated area. These actions taken by the Unified Port of San Diego are in attempt to reduce park loitering and free parking spaces for the popular seaside park.

Although Shelter Island is the current problem, many other San Diego neighborhoods and community spaces face the RV community problem on a daily basis.

Do you think people in San Diego who choose to reside in RVs to avoid paying rent or mortgages, should be free to park anywhere in San Diego? Or should RV parking be regulated to designated RV parks where fees are required and loitering is controlled? What about the real estate value of the land beneath the wheels?

I wonder about the RV community’s impact on the San Diego environment. Any thoughts?

The San Diego RV community: squatters, freeloaders, or geniuses? Hmm.

Was reading local San Diego real estate news this morning; I’m thinking about selling my condo. I found some interesting information about international investment in real estate which states that foreign investors ranked San Diego #9 in top US cities to invest in, down from #5 last year. I also read the SanDiegoBlog article about San Diego real estate prices.

What I’m trying to determine is when is the best time to sell a home in San Diego (or condo, in my case) in terms of during the year. Is spring best? Summer? Or a particular month?

The San Diego homes blog seemed to have some general info, even mentioning some homes sold stats for certain months but it was a little dated.

Anyone have data on what the percentage of asking price to sold price was last month?

Either way, San Diego real estate is not easy to approach for the average first time home buyer. You’ve seen the “You Can’t Afford to Live Here” link in the sidebar of SanDiegoBlog.com, you’ve probably gasped as you’ve watched Pacific Beach real estate prices start to look more like those of its northern neighbor, La Jolla, and technorati shows that “bubble burst” has been mentioned on blogs well over a hundred times per day throughout 2006.

According to the VoiceofSanDiego.org Foreclosure Counseling has become a new cottage industry to meet the needs of the growing number of (soon to be ex-) homeowners facing foreclosure.

I know we’ve got some informed San Diego realtors as regular readers here, maybe some seasoned RE investors as well. What are your thoughts on the San Diego real estate market? Can we expect that prices will level (have they already?) or decline in 2007?

Some homeowners inside downtown’s El Cortez created a web site to explain their battle to stop construction on a building 40 feet away. From Save the Historic El Cortez:

There is no right to build anything on the El Cortez block because of a covenant that protects it until 2025.
That isn’t stopping Peter Janopaul and his lobbyists from promoting this ugly building to the City Council, the CCDC,the CCAC the Planning Commission and the HRB.

I’m re-posting this as an Ask San Diego Blog entry on behalf of Sarah of NY who commented on an earlier real estate thread:

My husband and i are moving to san diego with our 7 month old baby this fall. We’re looking for an apt in South Bay/ Imperial Beach which is close to his work. All the sites i can find are pretty cookie cutter/ i know there are nicer places out there.

Do you have any advice for me? How does one moving to San Diego find the right place to live- via newspaper/websites (which ones?)/ local postings…?

also how far ahead to people usually look? We’re in NY now and you usually only start looking 2-3 weeks in advance. But in Toronto (Canada) where we’re from, we usually look 2 months in advance.

Thanks and hope to hear from you.

I don’t know about you guys, but this most recent place I’m living took me nearly a month to find (we had issues like 1 dog and 1 cat to accommodate) and we found it by driving around and looking for signs. 

Sarah, the good news is that a lot of places are month to month rather than a lease, so if you end up someplace that isn’t perfect you’re not locked in.  Good luck!

Anyone else have better /different advice for Sarah? chime in!

OK, I admit it, I keep looking, thinking that maybe just maybe something will suddenly get “affordable,” and I’ll be able to own my own home. So on realtor.com I see this sweet little townhouse. And I’m thinking, geeze, I know where that is. Right north of Cedros, I coulda sworn those were WAY over my budget, but this one said 425,000-475,000 (which is still way over what I think I can afford, but at least it is maybe within reach some day) and I read the fine print, shake my head and read it again, because this has got to be a joke….

Affordable Housing Unit requires the person that occupies the unit to meet the following criteria: 1 person household - income not to exceed $24,150. 2 person household - income not to exceed $27,600. 3 person household - income not to exceed $31,050. 4 person household - income not to exceed $34,500. 5 person household - income not to exceed $37,250. Information is based on the Affordable Housing Worksheet 2005 San Diego County…

And I look at the mortgage estimator, and even if it is kinda close, I’m thinking there is NO WAY anyone with income of $37,250 can afford to make payments on a 400,000 + mortgage, and feed the four other members of the family. Am I not calculating this correctly? At 37K annual, that’s bringing home a little over 3k a month. Even with a 20% downpayment, that means a mortgage payment of a couple grand a month, and what about insurance, taxes, gas, um food….

And why can’t a hardworking, frugal, decent person like myself get qualified to buy “affordable” housing?

AND ON WHAT PLANET IS $425,000 AFFORDABLE?

OK, I’m done with my housing rant for the week. Thank you for listening.

Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, writes in today’s Yahoo! Finance about the cooling real estate market.

A friend of mine, a very seasoned real estate investor, says in San Diego County, once one of the hottest real estate markets in the country, thousands of new condominiums are getting ready to come to market — just as the market softens. He estimates that over 12,000 new units are coming on line, and the market, at the best of times, can only absorb about 1,000 condominiums a year. If he’s correct, that means 12 years of supply will be ready for market in the next year.

Does anyone live in those downtown condos? Voice of San Diego on Downtown’s Dark Towers

Karen McElliott came to downtown San Diego looking for a new way of life. After 30 years living as a suburbanite in Scripps Ranch, McElliott, a widow, came looking for the bright lights of the big city.

She found a community with much of the vibrancy and energy that she hoped for. What she hasn’t found are neighbors.

Of the six units on her floor in her new condo building, McElliot’s is the only one that’s occupied. The Pinnacle, like many of downtown’s newer condo towers, is currently only 55-percent occupied by full-time residents.

When you’re alone and life is making you lonely you can always go…
Downtown
When you’ve got worries, all the noise and the hurry Seems to help, I know…
Downtown
Just listen to the music of the traffic in the city
Linger on the sidewalk where the neon signs are pretty
How can you lose?

*  *  *

This is the song that the City Council, the Centre City Development Corporation, and now the US Navy should all be singing…

Just in case anyone is interested in attending, there are public input workshops scheduled to discuss the development plans for the Navy Broadway complex (the “Front Porch” of San Diego– who came up with that one??)

Navy Broadway Complex Public Workshop II (Development Discussion)
04/22/2006 
Location: Embarcadero Meeting Room, 585 Harbor Lane 
Time: 9:30 a.m.
Contact: Jason Luker
619-235-2200
luker@ccdc.com

Visit www.navybroadway.com for project information.

I realize this is old news… but I’ve meaning to post about it for awhile now.  And since the Navy Broadway Complex redevelopment plan is a hot topic for you downtowners, I thought I’d pass this along, and include some of my thoughts:

The San Diego City Council on Feb. 28, 2006—at its very first hearing on
the Community Plan—voted to adopt the Plan! The Adopted Plan will soon be posted, and will also be available in hard copy when it is ready.

http://www.ccdc.com/planupdate/index.html

I read somewhere (I admit, I did not read all 8000 pages of the plan, but hey, I don’t even live in the city limits!)  that this plan calls for 30,000 more residents to live in downtown. I gotta say, I go downtown once a week for my Read and Critique group with Judy Reeves…  and every time I exit at 10th, and white knuckle it through the exiting and entering traffic, I wonder where the heck these 30,000 people are going to get on and off the freeway…  ’cause you know they’re not all going to work downtown.

Real estate investor Gene Burns, a San Diegan, has spent the last few years in Las Vegas making tons-o-money.  Not sure if any of you caught this article in the Union Tribune this weekend, but it sure gave me hope… that maybe one day I will be able to afford some sort of place to call my own. (I admit it, I’m a tad obsessed with this of late, and don’t get me wrong, I wish no one any ill will….)

My favorite quote from the article:

“I always say: follow a Hummer and you’ll find a pre-foreclosure home”

and yes, I know my predjudice against large gas guzzling, parking space hogging cars is showing…

This article was paired with another article about Burns setting his sights on San Diego next…  ominously predicting opportunities when “when the market goes through the correction that will start in the summer of 2006,” he said. “I think it will crash in 2007.”

He adds, “A lot of 32-year-olds bought a house for $800,000 and they just can’t afford it,” he said. “In 2007, their adjustable rate mortgages will start to adjust upward and they won’t be able to find that extra $500, $800, $1,000 a month to make the mortgage.”

For me, a house is first and foremost a home, secondly a long term investment so you can lower your living expenses when you’re old and your only income is retirement income–  that is if your pension plan hasn’t gone belly up and social security is still around…

OK, I’ll get off my fiscally conservative, socially liberal high horse for now. Happy Monday everyone!