12 Years of Condo Inventory

Monday, June 12, 2006, 16:47 —by mas
This item was posted in Real Estate in San Diego category and has 10 Comments so far.

Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, writes in today’s Yahoo! Finance about the cooling real estate market.

A friend of mine, a very seasoned real estate investor, says in San Diego County, once one of the hottest real estate markets in the country, thousands of new condominiums are getting ready to come to market — just as the market softens. He estimates that over 12,000 new units are coming on line, and the market, at the best of times, can only absorb about 1,000 condominiums a year. If he’s correct, that means 12 years of supply will be ready for market in the next year.

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10 Responses to “12 Years of Condo Inventory”

  1. Joe Crawford said on Monday, June 12, 2006, 19:09

    I am very interested to see how this will all play out for San Diego, and for downtown especially. I was in San Diego this weekend and was amazed to see what looked like even more residential highrise along Market. I am happy to see lots of activity on Kettner on a Friday night, but the magic 8-ball seems to be giving very mixed signals.

  2. Mr_Brightside said on Monday, June 12, 2006, 23:04

    I’ve been watching the market for quite sometime and do think there’s a big problem brewing. Many of these condos are going to be downtown San Diego and if you take a look at my blog you’ll see specific examples of condos going down in value.


  3. JeSais said on Tuesday, June 13, 2006, 7:22

    IF I could afford one of those 1/2 million dollar hip and trendy urban condos in downtown…. and IF I didn’t have to commute to Carlsbad…. downtown would be a great place to live.

  4. ChrisN said on Tuesday, June 13, 2006, 10:13

    Friends of mine in downtown condos have said asking prices in their buildings have already dropped from a ridiculous $400k, to a still ridiculous $320k over the last 6 months. There is going to me a lot more hurt coming down the pipeline once these ARMs & bat-shit-crazy-loans start resetting.

  5. voicesd said on Tuesday, June 13, 2006, 20:58

    Yes, it’s crazy, and I’ll stay in CLMT thank you very much…

    Also, check out what Will Carless @ voice has to say in his recent analysis… On Friday he wrote: “the borrowers of three-quarters of the loans issued in San Diego last year are not actually paying off any of the sum they borrowed for an introductory period. Their overall debt either remains the same, or increases for that time.” — Ummm, that’s crazy!

    Here’s the full article here:

  6. JeSais said on Tuesday, June 13, 2006, 21:12

    So I’m thinking investing in boring ole mutual funds is maybe not such a bad thing….

  7. Michael Allen Smith said on Wednesday, June 14, 2006, 7:04

    Unless those boring ole mutual funds invest in home builders, banks and if VoiceSD is right … retail.

  8. Downtown San Diego real estate broker said on Friday, September 29, 2006, 14:21

    I agree the number of condos on & comming on the market is huge. But, 12,000 sounds way too high. Really would like to see how this number was arrived at.

    For my own views on the entire San Diego real estate market, please visit:

  9. San Diego Lasik doctor said on Tuesday, October 3, 2006, 17:22

    Many feel that over 50% of the downtown condos are investor owned.

    By years end, many will realize they owe more than they can sell them for. Than the s*** will reall hit the fan!

  10. Michael Allen Smith said on Tuesday, October 3, 2006, 17:27

    By years end? It’s already happening. Take a look at the San Diego Market Monitor blog.